Thursday, April 24th, 2014

Somalia: New Government Name, Same Old Game

Published on August 18, 2012 by   ·   No Comments Waxaa Aqristay:1649

Nairobi: (V.O.N):-Somalia’s transitional government ends its mandate next week after eight years of infighting, little progress and rampant corruption, but the process to replace it is “deeply flawed”, analysts warn.

Set up in 2004, the Western-funded Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has already extended its mandate twice, and international backers have been determined it ends by an August 20 deadline.

But analysts are gloomy that a United Nations-backed selection process will usher in nothing more than a reshuffle of leaders already fingered for graft, risking an even further fragmentation of power into the hands of local warlords.

“This is not a process: it is a power-grab by any means,” said Afyare Elmi, a Somali academic at Qatar University, adding he did not see “a substantive change taking place.”

“It is deeply flawed. The process is being manipulated… (parliamentary) seats are going to the highest bidders,” Elmi added. “My fear is that this might lead to a new cycle of communal violence.”

The UN Special Representative for Somalia Augustine Mahiga holds optimistically that after August, the Horn of Africa nation will be “more peaceful, more stable and more established in terms of democratic governance.”

But the process is much criticised: the UN, African Union and East Africa’s main diplomatic body IGAD warned last week that political leaders were using “bribery, intimidation (and) violence” to rig the selection of lawmakers.

“No mechanisms for accountability have been put in place to try to minimise spoilers’ involvement,” said Laura Hammond of Britain’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS).

“The process has become entirely corrupted – the Constituent Assembly was chosen under dubious conditions, the new constitution was rubber-stamped, and the parliamentary seats are being distributed to the highest bidders,” she said.

Delays to the Monday deadline are almost certain, said Roland Marchal of the Paris-based National Centre for Scientific Research.

But while a delay of a few days may be “nothing scandalous”, Marchal notes far deeper problems in the process, criticising international efforts as having focused on deadlines rather than content.

“The international community should have fought for the process and values, but in the end fought only to get a constitution” on time, Marchal said.

Experts say the selection of a new government – the latest only in a string of peace efforts in the Horn of Africa nation, at war ever since dictator Siad Barre was toppled in 1991 – will change little on the ground.

“Unless something dramatic happens in the next week, I do not expect the new government to look much different than the old one,” said Hammond.

“It may be called a Provisional Government rather than a Transitional one, but it is likely to be led by the same individuals and perhaps more importantly, by the same interests.

“If this happens, there is not much hope for tackling problems like the widely reported corruption or the holding of power by a few key individuals.”

Massive step forwards have been made in Somalia, with greatly improved security in the capital and members of the diaspora returning to invest in their war-ravaged homeland.

Until al-Qaeda linked Shebab insurgents fled fixed positions in the capital last year – switching to guerrilla tactics including suicide bomb attacks – the divided government controlled only a few city blocks of Mogadishu.

Today, about 17 000 African Union troops, Ethiopian soldiers and government forces – the vast majority a ragtag coalition of militia forces, unified only in opposition to the Shebab – have made significant territorial gains.

But extending control of the future government over the areas where the Shebab have been forced out will be a key challenge for the new government.

“The question of whether or not people in the so-called ‘liberated areas’ will want to accept the new government, if it is not seen as having been legitimately formed, is crucial,” Hammond added.

“They may choose to continue supporting Al-Shebab clandestinely, or to try to forge their own form of local government. This could result in fragmentation of parts of southern Somalia and ultimately could mean further fighting.”

And while people are desperate for peace after two decades of conflict, many leaders “have done well out of the country’s flourishing war economy,” notes Mary Harper, a BBC reporter and author of a recent book on Somalia.

“Until they decide there is more to gain from peace than war, it is probable that some parts of the country will continue to be affected by violence and instability for some time to come,” Harper wrote in a recent paper. -

Sapa-AFP

Share

Readers Comments (0)



Arrimaha Bulshada

Ok

DAAWO:Barnaamijy Qiiro Leh “U Hiili Boqor Iyo Bartamaha By:Maryan Seylac

March 24, 2014
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Barnaamijka Bulsho ee ka Baxa Royal TV- ayaa shalayto waxaa soo-saaraha iyo soo-jeediyaha barnaamijkaasi, Maryan Saylac ay ...
ganaax_1

DAAWO:Arin Yaab Leh Oo Dhexmartay Gabar Yar Oo Sedex Jir ah Iyo Boliiska Mareykanka

March 20, 2014
Florida: (V.O.N):-Sheeko layaab leh oo ka dhacday Magaalada Florida ee Dalka Mareykanka ayaa soo jiidatay Warbaahinta Caalamka kadib ...
Cawaale22

DHAGEYSO:Al-Fanaan Cawaale Aadan Oo Ka Hadlay Arimo Xasaasi ah

March 1, 2014
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Fanaanka Caanka ee Reer Jabuuti Cawaale Aadan oo ku Sugan Dalka Canada ayaa Ka sheekeeyay taariikhdiisa Dhanka ...
Guulled Adan

QISO Xanuunbadan:Bur Burkii Jaceylkeyga Waxaa Gacan Weyn Ka Geystay Saaxiibkeyga Qeybtii 2aad

February 27, 2014
   Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Qisadaani ayaa ah mid cajiib oo marka aan diyaarinaye runtii dareen  badan igu abuurtay ayaan waxaan ka ...
guuled 3

(Guuleed Aadan Muuse):- Bur Burkii Jaceylkeyga Waxaa Gacan Weyn Ka Geystay Saaxiibkeyga (Qiso Jaceyl Oo Xanuun Badan Qeybtii 1 Kowaad)

February 11, 2014
waxaan salaamayaa aqristayaasha Sharafta leh salaan qaali ah salaan iyo bariido dabadeed ereyadaan waa kuwo kasoo burqanaayo qalibi nusqaamay ...
Abdifitah

DAAWO:Fanaan Caan Ah Oo Shaaciyay Inuu Fanka Isaga Baxay Codsadayna In Loo Duceeyo

January 19, 2014
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Fanaanka da'da yar ee sida weyn loo Taageero alfanaan Cabdifatah Axmed Tacabir (Cabdifitax Yare) ayaa sheegay inuu isaga ...
imagesCAIM9619

Cunug Mucjiso Ah Oo Ku Dhashay Israa’iil, Iyo Yahuuda Oo Ka Argagaxsan+SAWIRO

January 13, 2014
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Warbaahinta Israel ayaa baahisay in Magaalada madaxda Dalkaasi uu ku dhashay Wiil yar oo leh Hal il, ...
akshay-katrina-4

8-Da Jilaa Ee Ugu Dheesha Wanaagsanaa Bollywoodka.

January 1, 2014
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Akhristayaasha Sharafta leh ee Shabakadan Wardaye.com waxaan Aalaba usoo gudbineynaa Wararka ugu Xiisaha badan Dunida Sida Siyaasadda ...
15-300x225

Arin Naxdin Leh Oo Ka Dhaxday Muqdisho+Sawiro

December 31, 2013
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Maamulka Cusbitaalka hooyada iyo dhalaanka ee Banaadir ayaa Faah Faahin ka bixiyay laba Caruur Mataano ah oo ...
download12

Naxdin:Daawo Sheekh Umal Oo Yaab Leh Uga Jawaabay Galmada Afka

December 30, 2013
Nairobi: (V.O.N):-Sheekh Umal oo ka mid ah Culimada aqoonta durugsan u leh ayaa waxaa la weydiiyay Su’aalo badan ...
1

Caruus Ka Dhuuntay Xaaskiisa In Lagu Guda jiray Xafladii Arooska

November 27, 2013
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Caruuskii ayaa ka dib dhacay in uu yimaado xafladii Guri gaynynta , durbana mid ka mida martida ...
1

DAAWO: Sawirada Ninka Dunida ugu Ilkaha Adag

November 11, 2013
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Andariis Jaardayn oo ah 64 jir ayaa loo aqoonsaday ninka ugu ilkaha adag waxaana ka mid noqday ...
sawir Mucjiso

Dalka Thailand Oo Lagu Arkay Arin Mucjiyo Ah+SAWIRO

November 11, 2013
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Wadanka Thailand oo dhaca bariga fog ee Qaarada Aasiya ayaa waxa uu ka dhacday Arin mucjiso ah,kadib ...
images

FADEEXAD:Agaasime Musuqmaasuqay Mushaaraadka Shaqaalihiisa

November 9, 2013
Muqdisho: (V.O.N):-Agaasime Xasan Cali Geeseey oo ah Rugcadaa Saxaafdeed , ka soo shaqeeyay qaar ka mid ah Idaaccadaha ...
Hore

Daawo Video: Qaladkii Ugu Weynaa Ee Uu galo Wariye TV Ka Howlgala Taariikhda

November 5, 2013
London : (V.O.N):- Inta Badan Wariyaasha calamka ayaa  Qaladaad gala iyagoo warka Akhrinaya Sida wariyaasha Soomaalidaba  Qaladadka U galaan. Hadaba ...
%d bloggers like this: